Diabetes Rates May Double Worldwide by 2030

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Diabetes Rates May Double Worldwide by 2030

WebMD Health NewsApril 26, 2004 -- The number of people with diabetes will double worldwide by 2030, according to new estimates from researchers at the World Health Organization (WHO) and several European universities.

Although the U.S. is expected to experience a far more rapid increase in diabetes rates, the study suggests the greatest relative increases will be in the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and India.

That's because researchers say deaths due to infectious diseases as well as maternal and infant deaths in developing countries are expected to continue to drop in the next 30 years. Meanwhile, as diabetes rates climb in these areas, deaths due to related diseases, such as heart disease, will increase and account for a larger proportion of deaths in developing countries.

According to the study, published in the May issue of Diabetes Care, the top 10 countries with the highest number of estimated diabetes cases for 2000 and 2030 are as follows:




2000
2030

Rank
Country
People with diabetes (millions)
Country
People with diabetes (millions)

1
India
31.7
India
79.4

2
China
20.8
China
42.3

3
U.S.
17.7
U.S.
30.3

4
Indonesia
8.4
Indonesia
21.3

5
Japan
6.8
Pakistan
13.9

6
Pakistan
5.2
Brazil
11.3

7
Russian Federation
4.6
Bangladesh
11.1

8
Brazil
4.6
Japan
8.9

9
Italy
4.3
Philippines
7.8

10
Bangladesh
3.2
Egypt
6.7





Diabetes Epidemic Growing Ahead of Schedule
The study shows that the three countries with the most people with diabetes are expected to remain India, China, and the U.S. But researchers predict an even higher increase than the CDC predicted in 2001.

The CDC study projected that the number of Americans diagnosed with diabetes would reach 29 million by 2050, but this study estimates there will be more than 30 million Americans with diabetes as early as 2030. Researchers say the new estimate is based on the fact that up to 50% of people with diabetes do not know they have the disease, and their projection is based on people with both diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes.

Researchers say it's unlikely that their projections overestimate the future of the diabetes epidemic because they are based on the prevalence of obesity remaining stable. But obesity rates have been rising substantially in recent years. Obesity is the leading modifiable risk factor for diabetes.

"Even if the prevalence of obesity remains stable until 2030, which seems unlikely, it is anticipated that the number of people with diabetes will more than double as a consequence of population aging and urbanization," write researcher Sarah Wild, PhD, of the University of Edinburgh, Scotland, and colleagues.

"The human and economic costs of this epidemic are enormous," write the researchers. "A concerted global initiative is required to address the diabetes epidemic."

Obesity, Inactivity Keeping Heart Health Stats Down

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Obesity, Inactivity Keeping Heart Health Stats Down

HealthDay Reporter – Thu Dec 17,2009 11:49 pm ET

THURSDAY, Dec. 17 (HealthDay News) -- While physicians and surgeons are getting better at treating heart attacks and other cardiovascular problems, too many Americans are ignoring the basic rules for preventing them, according to new statistics from the American Heart Association.

Topping the list: too little exercise, too much weight.

In fact, 59 percent of adults surveyed last year reported no activity vigorous enough to prompt sweating and a significant increase in breathing or heart rate, according to the update. The findings are published online Dec. 17 in the journal Circulation.
"The things people need to focus on are our weight and our waist," said Dr. Donald M. Lloyd-Jones, chair of the heart association's statistics committee. "Those are driving a lot of other risk factors, such as cholesterol and diabetes."
Tackling inactivity and overweight will be key to turning heart health statistics around said Lloyd-Jones, who is also chairman of the department of preventive medicine and staff cardiologist at Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine.

The American diet also demands more attention, he said. "There is just too much availability of very calorie-dense food," he said. "We're not doing anything to burn off those extra pounds."

Data from 2003-2006 shows that 11.3 percent of children and teenagers were at or
above the 97th percentile in body mass index for their age. That's ominous, because oerweight teens have a 70 percent chance of becoming overweight adults, the report notes.

Preventive measures should be emphasized for younger people, Lloyd-Jones said. "We need to be thinking about this as a life-long problem, not just when you turn 50," he said.

Cholesterol control is ignored by many who would benefit from it most, according to the Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics 2010 update. Fewer than half the Americans with symptomatic heart disease are receiving treatment to lower their blood levels of fats, and only a third of people getting treatment are achieving the target levels of LDL cholesterol, the "bad kind" that clogs arteries.

"Everything is coming together in the worst way -- obesity, inactivity, smoking," said Dr. Clyde W. Yancy, heart association president and medical director of the Baylor Heart and Vascular Institute in Dallas. "In our younger group, instead of seeing improvement, it is getting worse."

One relatively bright spot is better control of high blood pressure, a major cardiovascular risk factor, Lloyd-Jones said. "In the last few years, we have taken a bump up, and that gives us reason to hope, especially in prevention of heart failure," he said.

Other findings:
• Death rates from cardiovascular disease declined about 30 percent between 1996 and 2006, as treatments improved.
• In 2006, 7.2 million in-hospital cardiovascular procedures were performed, a 33 percent increase over the 1996 level.
• The cost of treating cardiovascular disease is expected to rise 5.8 percent in 2010, to $503.2 billion, a figure that lends real urgency to prevention efforts, Lloyd-Jones said.

"So we are spending half a trillion dollars on cardiovascular disease," Yancy said. "And we recognize that, as in our younger population the incidence of sedentary life style, obesity and smoking are going up, that expenditure will continue to rise."

By 2020, the association hopes for a 20 percent improvement in the cardiovascular health of all Americans and a 20 percent reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases and stroke.

More information
Cardiovascular risk factors are listed by the American Heart Association.

Looking Younger Than Your Age May Mean Longer Life

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Looking Younger Than Your Age May Mean Longer Life

By HealthDay - Mon Dec 14, 2:03 PM PST
- MONDAY, Dec. 14 (HealthDay News) -- People who look younger than their age tend to live longer than those who look older than their years, a new study suggests.

The finding came from research that involved 1,826 Danish twins, aged 70 and older, who were given physical and cognitive tests and then had their faces photographed. Three groups of volunteers looked at the photos and indicated the age they perceived the participants to be. Twins were assessed individually, and on different days.

The researchers, from the University of Southern Denmark, then tracked the twins for seven years and found that perceived age was significantly associated with survival, even after adjustments were made for actual age, sex and the environment in which each pair of twins was raised. The bigger the difference in perceived age, the more likely it was that the older-looking twin died first, they noted.

The researchers also found an association between perceived age and physical and mental functioning.
Common genetic factors that influence both survival and perceived age may help explain the findings, the study authors explained.

"Perceived age -- which is widely used by clinicians as a general indication of a patient's health -- is a robust biomarker of aging that predicts survival among those aged 70 and older and correlates with important functional and molecular aging phenotypes," Kaare Christensen and colleagues wrote in their report, which was published Dec. 13 in the online edition of the BMJ.

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